Tag: bengals

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NFL

Can defenses really win championships? Analyzing the path to a Super Bowl win.

The phrase, “Defense wins championships,” is often tossed around when debating if a team can contend for a Super Bowl in the NFL. Supporters of this argument cite examples of historically dominant defenses that became the focal point of championship-winning teams. Examples include the Legion of Boom, the nickname of the mid-2010s Seattle Seahawks defense, which led them to two Super Bowl appearances. Another is the 1985 Chicago Bears defense known as the Monsters of the Midway, which led Chicago to its first-ever Super Bowl win. These legends make a strong case that defense does, in fact, lead to championships; however, we need to look at a greater sample size to determine how accurate this statement really is.

Graph by @tejfbanalytics

This graph by data scientist,Tej Seth, shows the offensive and defensive rankings of teams that appeared in the Super Bowl between 2012 and 2022. The immediate takeaway from this data is that having a top 15 offense is essential for Super Bowl contention. Other than the 2015 Denver Broncos who were a significant outlier in NFL history with the struggling Peyton Manning-led offense constantly bailed out by the defense, every other Super Bowl team had a top-tier offense. This makes logical sense as football is a quarterback-oriented game in which teams win by scoring points.

Additionally, the range of defensive rank presented here is much wider and seemingly less impactful than the high offensive standards these teams have. When taken at face value, this graph suggests that the statement “Defense wins championships” must be false and that the offensive line-up is the ultimate decider of regular-season and playoff performance.

As I dived deeper into the topic and looked at more specific examples, I realized that this graph may not tell the whole story as it only looks at teams that appeared in the Super Bowl. While some of these teams may have had poor defensive performance in the regular season, they likely excelled in every other category, including coaching and playoff performance. Looking at more specific examples of teams that missed the playoffs altogether, as in the chart below by Opta Analyst, we start seeing an interesting picture that highlights the importance of defense. Consider the 2024-25 Cincinnati Bengals.

Chart by Opta Analyst

The Bengals are the most recent and well-known example of a defense blowing a team’s season. Led by MVP finalist Joe Burrow and triple crown winner Ja’marr Chase, it seemed inevitable that this team would end up in the playoffs. Despite putting up a dominant offensive performance week in and week out, the Bengals defense allowed more opposing team points than they could score, leading to loss after loss, and ultimately a 4-8 record. This has happened numerous times throughout NFL History, notably to Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, who lost games despite having the best offense in the league.

I would argue that while having a strong defense doesn’t necessarily correlate to winning championships, having a weak defense may cost a team the opportunity to try. To me, a team who wants to contend for a Super Bowl should prioritize finding their franchise quarterback and then follow up by creating a solid defense. Judging by recent history, we know it’s almost impossible to win a Super Bowl without an elite quarterback; a strong defense, on the contrary, while it isn’t make or break, does improve the odds.  

So, does defense win championships? Maybe not, but a team with a strong balance of offense and defense will always stand a much greater chance than one who leans heavily to a single side of the ball.

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NFL

Amid contract chaos, the Bengals have many decisions to make

The Cincinnati Bengals have faced a rollercoaster of an offseason, with many unique and ongoing contract situations that have been the center of attention. In March, the Bengals’ front office re-signed wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, an outcome that most NFL fans and analysts viewed as unlikely due to the wide receivers’ high market value, along with the tight salary cap restrictions the Bengals face. The contracts of Joe Burrow, Jamarr Chase, and Tee Higgins now take up 44% of the Bengals’ salary cap space in 2025, leaving them with very little room to improve the rest of the roster. 

This has all led up to the drama the Bengals have faced surrounding their superstar edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. Hendrickson, who led the league in sacks last season with 17.5, still has a year left on his contract but wants an extension now. It has been somewhat unclear what exactly the Bengals have offered Hendrickson, but he is unhappy with it as he has been sitting out of mandatory minicamp. Although I want to side with the front office on this issue, it is very difficult considering Hendrickson’s claims that they had no communication with him for two months following the NFL Draft. Hendrickson has clearly expressed his anger and it seems as though he is willing to sit out as long as it takes. The Bengals need to make a decision as soon as possible whether they are willing to pay him the money he is asking for, and if not, they need to find a trade destination for him. To me, the Bengals must re-sign Hendrickson. Considering that the Bengals had a bottom-five defense last season which ultimately led to them missing the playoffs, Hendrickson was one of the few bright spots. Since the Bengals did practically nothing to improve the defense during free agency, I believe that it is very important that they retain Hendrickson if they want any chance to compete for a playoff spot. 

It is no secret that the Bengals owner, Mike Brown, has been historically cheap when it comes to paying players, but it feels as though since entering the Joe Burrow era, that narrative has flipped. To me, it seems as though the Bengals are willing to spend the money but now just want to win the argument with Hendrickson, which has ultimately been a distraction to the team’s offseason. 

Although the front office’s approach in handling the Hendrickson situation has been questionable, I completely side with them in their other heated negotiation that being rookie defensive end, Shemar Stewart. The Bengals drafted Stewart out of Texas A&M with their first-round draft pick this year in an effort to improve their defense. It has now been two months since drafting him and they are yet to agree to his rookie contract. For the most part, rookie contracts are fairly straightforward as the salary they receive is determined by the draft pick that they were selected with. The issue Stewart has with his contract has nothing to do with the money and rather has to do with the language in which the contract is stated. The Bengals have included a clause that essentially allows them to void future guaranteed money if Stweart were to break team rules or face trouble with the law. Stewart is arguing that the Bengals’ previous first-round draft picks, Myles Murphy and Amarius Mims, did not have this clause in their contract. The Bengals however, are trying to set a precedent for all future contracts to include this clause. Although the Bengals are getting heat from the media for once again being difficult in their contract negotiations, it is important that the Bengals stand their ground. The “void clause” is becoming more common in NFL contracts throughout the league, and top rookies in this year’s class, including Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter have signed the clause. Although some ridiculous situations have been thrown around where Stewart can re-enter the draft next year and join a different team, I believe he will sign eventually. If the Bengals give in and remove the clause, they will never be able to include it again as their future rookies could also sit out. Over time, Stewart will sign the contract as there is no chance he will pass up the money that comes with being a first-round draft pick.

The Bengals front office is facing a very difficult offseason, but if they can re-sign Hendrickson and stay patient with Shemar Stewart, they will have all their distractions behind them and they can lock in on making another Super Bowl run.

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NFL

Despite Joe Burrow’s Season-Ending Injury, The Cincinnati Bengals Are Eyeing a Playoff Spot

Both the Cincinnati Bengals and NFL fans were devastated midday Friday when it was announced that quarterback Joe Burrow was ruled out for the rest of the season. In a critical divisional matchup against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night, Burrow left the game with an unknown wrist injury. While most Bengals fans were frustrated with the 34-20 loss, reality set in after the game. Their franchise quarterback injured his right throwing wrist. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed that Burrow had torn a ligament and is out for the season. This is a significant blow for a team that had been dominating, defeating Super Bowl contenders in the San Francisco 49ers and the Buffalo Bills.

Despite the widespread belief that the Bengals cannot make the playoff without their MVP caliber quarterback, recent history shows that they can still compete. Burrow is the sixth quarterback to face a season ending injury. Along with those six, nine other quarterbacks have missed time with injuries this season. Many backup quarterbacks have entered the scene and proven they can win. Significant examples of this include Vikings’ quarterback Josh Dobbs, and Bears’ quarterback Tyson Bagnet. There are many parallels between the Vikings disaster when Kirk Cousins went down with injury, and the Bengals current situation. The Vikings proved that it is possible to dominate even with a new quarterback under center.

Jake Browning, likely the Bengals quarterback moving forward, may not be Joe Burrow, but he brings his own skills to the table. Browning’s play-extending skills and ability to utilize his legs were shown in his limited opportunities against the Ravens. Along with this, he also showed confidence as a passer given the situation, he was put in. The play-extending skill and pocket passing accuracy Browning has been very Joe Burrow-like. While he is obviously not near Joe Burrows level of talent, the offense should have no problem adapting to Browning at quarterback. While there has been speculation about signing a bigger-name quarterback like Matt Ryan or Nick Foles, Browning’s playstyle aligns well enough to give him a chance. Being with the team all offseason, Browning is already an expert on the system. The success will ultimately be determined by if Browning can deliver consistent execution on a week-to-week basis.

Currently 1.5 games out of the playoff picture, the Bengals should not throw away this season. The winning culture in Cincinnati is real and will thrive if Browning plays well enough. With the plethora of offensive and defensive weapons, this team is built to be a playoff team, with or without Joe Burrow at quarterback.