The phrase, “Defense wins championships,” is often tossed around when debating if a team can contend for a Super Bowl in the NFL. Supporters of this argument cite examples of historically dominant defenses that became the focal point of championship-winning teams. Examples include the Legion of Boom, the nickname of the mid-2010s Seattle Seahawks defense, which led them to two Super Bowl appearances. Another is the 1985 Chicago Bears defense known as the Monsters of the Midway, which led Chicago to its first-ever Super Bowl win. These legends make a strong case that defense does, in fact, lead to championships; however, we need to look at a greater sample size to determine how accurate this statement really is.
Graph by @tejfbanalytics
This graph by data scientist,Tej Seth, shows the offensive and defensive rankings of teams that appeared in the Super Bowl between 2012 and 2022. The immediate takeaway from this data is that having a top 15 offense is essential for Super Bowl contention. Other than the 2015 Denver Broncos who were a significant outlier in NFL history with the struggling Peyton Manning-led offense constantly bailed out by the defense, every other Super Bowl team had a top-tier offense. This makes logical sense as football is a quarterback-oriented game in which teams win by scoring points.
Additionally, the range of defensive rank presented here is much wider and seemingly less impactful than the high offensive standards these teams have. When taken at face value, this graph suggests that the statement “Defense wins championships” must be false and that the offensive line-up is the ultimate decider of regular-season and playoff performance.
As I dived deeper into the topic and looked at more specific examples, I realized that this graph may not tell the whole story as it only looks at teams that appeared in the Super Bowl. While some of these teams may have had poor defensive performance in the regular season, they likely excelled in every other category, including coaching and playoff performance. Looking at more specific examples of teams that missed the playoffs altogether, as in the chart below by Opta Analyst, we start seeing an interesting picture that highlights the importance of defense. Consider the 2024-25 Cincinnati Bengals.
Chart by Opta Analyst
The Bengals are the most recent and well-known example of a defense blowing a team’s season. Led by MVP finalist Joe Burrow and triple crown winner Ja’marr Chase, it seemed inevitable that this team would end up in the playoffs. Despite putting up a dominant offensive performance week in and week out, the Bengals defense allowed more opposing team points than they could score, leading to loss after loss, and ultimately a 4-8 record. This has happened numerous times throughout NFL History, notably to Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, who lost games despite having the best offense in the league.
I would argue that while having a strong defense doesn’t necessarily correlate to winning championships, having a weak defense may cost a team the opportunity to try. To me, a team who wants to contend for a Super Bowl should prioritize finding their franchise quarterback and then follow up by creating a solid defense. Judging by recent history, we know it’s almost impossible to win a Super Bowl without an elite quarterback; a strong defense, on the contrary, while it isn’t make or break, does improve the odds.
So, does defense win championships? Maybe not, but a team with a strong balance of offense and defense will always stand a much greater chance than one who leans heavily to a single side of the ball.
Third Down With Devin 